I had a phone conversation yesterday with the famous Page Howe. One of the things we talked about was whether or not the number of domainers is increasing or decreasing and implications of fluctuation one way or the other.
My first thought without looking at or considering any data, is that of course the number of domainers is increasing or should be increasing. I mean what other industry even comes close to this one? You can spend as much or as little time as you want dealing with domains, earn money in a thousand different ways and spend as much money or no money at all. The no money at all route being one where you do the leg work and research for an acquisition, then pass the lead onto someone like Drew R and get a cut of the deal. Where else can you pay $8 for something and sell it for $20K a few months later? No where that I know of, well, nothing that’s legal anyway.
The significance of growing or not growing is probably most important to domain wholesalers, domainer services and products, and domainer information sites. But you can also make the case that everyone is affected by stagnation in the industry because without growth, the products and services that make our lives easier aren’t worth maintaining and innovation in the industry won’t happen.
How can we tell if we’re growing or shrinking? Is it possible that we’re growing but the community isn’t currently as engaged as it is during volatile times or controversy? Obviously there are some people that are just not going to be good at this despite more resources available to learn the business than ever before. Site like the DomainSherpa , DNAcademy and forums like NamePros have enough information to make anyone off the street an expert if they put the time in.
My opinion is that we are growing, but that our participation and engagement fluctuates in cycles. There are times when I have no idea what’s going on in the rest of the industry because I just get lost in day to day life. I have intentions to stay engaged, but sometimes I need something like namescon to recharge my domaining batteries.
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I think that you nailed it in terms of engagement and cycles- it seems that when markets go down for a bit- people either lose interest or set it and forget it (think stocks, crypto, real estate).
Once headlines come back with market highs the interest returns either with dormant folks returning or newly interested people entering. Seems like we are just in one of those lulls that can last a while.
Maybe something like the Namescon auction can spur some activity with some nice headline sales? Maybe we need the global economy better? No matter what there is always opportunity.
Mike
Interesting topic. I would assume the number of domainers are increasing but the industry seems to be getting much much harder. Most newbies will quit within a few months, the ones who spend a full time year (2000 hours) to get educated will last longer. The educated ones with huge spending capacity will last even longer. I personally find more and more businesses being complacent with their 3 word dashed .nets and crappy new tlds. The number of businesses world wide are growing, yet the number of businesses willing to spend any money seem to be shrinking. When interest rates get into gear and the economy tanks this year, I think we will see a lot of domainers heading for the exits – me included. 12 years in the trenches and off to something that makes real money. All the best to the survivors.