I’ve read the stories of the sky falling for domain owners from most major media entities talking about the new tlds that will be introduced. A move that to me, only strengthens the dot com brand and puts a hurting on the other tlds.
For a mere cost of a million dollars over 10 years (the commitment time) a person can now have their own branded tld. The number of people that would be interested/can afford this is very limited. Large corporation and speculators. No different that the tlds that are being brought out now. Touted as helping consumers with more choices, the reality is that these are only being set up to bring in more money for ICANN and investors in the new tlds.
When new choices are brought in, in any market, the newer introductions are always the first hurt. I see dot info, tv, biz, and even dot co losing sales to the new tlds. Dot com on the other hand. It makes it even stronger. It is the king and when their are more followers, the king gets stronger. Todaro had this great comment over at TheDomains,
“look down at your keyboard. it was created in 1871 as a technical advance over the original typewriter created in 1869 because the most used keys kept knocking into each other and getting stuck. 90 years later in 1961 ibm introduced the selectric… no keys at all… just a ball with letters on it. since that time there have been untold new and truly better keyboards created with serious financial backing. none have achieved even 1% market penetration. now everything is computerized but here’s a hint… things tend to stay the way they are… at least until they change. you’re not buying space on the internet… you’re buying space in people’s heads.”
And I have to agree. This sounds great but the reality is it will just be more, not better. You’re merely moving the dot to the left and creating more confusion. Now it will be fragerfactor.blogspot instead of fragerfactor.blogspot.com. Dot com loses one address in this conversion and it still makes the user a lackey to the brand that owns the tld. True unique individuality will just as difficult with the all the users of the brand domains as it has been for the dot biz people. The dot com owners will always be considered the superior domain.
As a pure dot com owner (mostly) I don’t think it will matter at all to me. The true test will be watching Google try and figure out all the new additions. In short, the more things change, the more they stay the same.