That’s my feeling about a lot of things lately. In a online world where people are celebrating what they deem to be success I think the reality is they are falling. They’re just falling gracefully.
1. Groupon: I don’t care how much revenue the company makes, it’s not making money. When you sell 5 million dollars worth of heavily discounted tire rotations it doesn’t mean Groupon is making money. I can guarantee the company giving away the merchandise isn’t making any, and at the burn rate of Groupon , it doesn’t seem like they are either. I do believe the first in has a huge advantage but the competition is growing daily and the margins will continue to dip. This company is severely overvalued and I can’t wait until they have puts on this stock. I just hope the stock stays above ten dollars before the puts are released.
2. InternetTraffic: Great. Everyone is making a lot more money than they were. It still sucks compared to the “old days”. It’s better than it was, which is better than nothing. I realize there are still people making great money parking but there are just as many that aren’t even covering renewal cost. If parking was so great there would be absolutely no need to sell any names and yet everyone is. Schilling makes millions parking, a few others make hundreds of thousands, most of the rest, peanuts. IT is the best of what’s left. Internet Traffic sounds like it’s flying but in reality it’s a dead cat bounce.
3. WannaDevelop.com How does Mike afford to keep this going? They seemed great a few years ago but their time has come and gone. Nobody is making any money with these things. If they made in any money why wouldn’t he just keep them to himself? He could do thousands of them and rake in the cash. It’s like the guy selling his football picks. If they were so good why doesn’t he just go and bet everything he has and forget everyone else? Not flying, not buying
4. 3D Anything The hot buzz of the last few years has been 3d. I said it before and I’ll repeat it, 3D is a gimmick that runs its course every 10 years. It’s great temporarily and then people get sick of it. Clarity and definition? It’s here to stay with high definition. That depth and clarity of picture continues to grow but there are limits to how “deep” people want to watch on a consistent basis. People like depth, but 3D is uncomfortable to watch all the time. There is still money to be made in 3D names but only the really good ones and the obscure 3D names are losing value every day. I sold when it was flying because now it’s falling.
5. All but the best dot co domains: I like dot co. I really do. I think it is fantastic for a brand or company to use. As an investment? You better have the BEST names and category killers because the rest are going to be worth less than renewal. If I am starting a new brand I would feel very comfortable using dot co. If I was sitting on a giant portfolio of dot co I wouldn’t. Dot co is an advertiser but it is my job to be honest. Dot co was meant to be in the hands of the people that will actually use the domain. The Namejet auction of dot cos will say a lot. I think it will say that the reason dot co will succeed is because it is a name that is being used by businesses and Internet users, and not because it has a good return on investment. Dot co is flying but the investments are falling but falling gracefully.